NSAIT · Force correlation v0.16
Force correlation — axes A–F + Mecca Pact
Metric: military expenditure (SIPRI via Our World in Data, constant 2024 USD, 2025). Axis C is selected by EU GDP top-3, but scored on milex. USA = axis E. Axis F = Caspian / Middle Corridor transit. Overlays: Mecca Pact (TR·PK·SA) · Crunch zones (12 late-2020s theatres) · SE Asia maritime (Indonesia-centred architecture) · Azerbaijan (South Caucasus pivot) · Ganja Gap (Hudson, shared with Map) · GPF atlas (strategic geography reference, 2025) · NATO eastern line (military-mobility routes and choke points, Estonia→Greece) · Russia (southern flank: Central Asia, Caucasus and China pressure beyond Ukraine; Arctic bases and the Kola Northern Fleet).
Axes map
Indicative centroids + corridor sketches; not surveyed borders; expenditure ≠ combat power. Geometries indicative.
Axis F throughput (bypass-Russia corridor)
Open-source capacities / recent volumes for oil (million barrels), gas (bcm/y), and containers (TEU). Capacity ≠ flow. Not folded into milex ratios.
China Silk Road routes to the EU
BRI / China–Europe connectivity options. Middle Corridor overlaps Axis F and can bypass Russia; Northern Corridor still runs via Russia/Belarus.
Investments in Axis F
Selected open investment / finance items — indicative, not a full FDI census.
Crunch zones — late 2020s
Twelve pressure theatres (CoG Map 7 key). Euro-Atlantic four are primary for NSAIT; others contextualise Axis A reach. Indicative centroids — not CoG map art. Not folded into milex ratios.
Mecca Pact — ME burden-shifting
Turkey · Pakistan · Saudi Arabia joint defense framework (signed 2026-08-07). Early Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia showed operationalization is incomplete; Turkey/Pakistan bandwidth constrained (multi-theatre; AFG–PAK western flank). Not folded into A–F milex ratios.
SE Asia maritime architecture
Indonesia as centre of gravity, with India and Australia as principal stakeholders and the U.S. as enabler (GPF, Kamran Bokhari, 2026-10-09). Markers at named places; new-command markers at provincial capitals. Not folded into A–F milex ratios.
Azerbaijan — South Caucasus pivot
Long-term view: Azerbaijan as leading South Caucasus power balancing Russia, Turkey and Iran, with U.S. interest via TRIPP; forecast of a “new Switzerland” (GPF, George Friedman, 2026-10-08). Capital markers + schematic links; TRIPP line from open sources (not located in the PDF). Forecast, not folded into A–F milex ratios. Related: Ganja Gap layer (Hudson; same data as the NSAIT Map) — see cross-link cards below.
Strategic geography — GPF atlas (2025)
Fixed geography behind the axes, from Geopolitical Futures' The World Explained in Maps, vol. 4 (special report, 2025): North European Plain and eastern borderlands, Russia's Arctic lanes, Central Asian gas lines, East Asian island chains and selected U.S. bases (map dated April 2023). Markers at named places; all lines schematic, some waypoints open-source (flagged in each popup). Reference context, not current posture; not folded into A–F milex ratios.
NATO eastern line — military mobility
Estonia-to-Greece reinforcement spine and its pain points from Geopolitical Futures' special report Reviving NATO's Eastern Line (Antonia Colibasanu, 2025): Via Baltica, the Suwałki Gap, Polish and Hungarian motorways, Carpathian crossings, the Danube at Ruse, Black Sea ports and Alexandroupoli. Solid = road, dashed = rail, dotted = secondary / planned. Blue = Rail Baltica as verified on public sources (railbaltica.org and national implementers, 9 Oct 2026): long dashes = new 1435 mm line under construction, solid = operational PL border–Kaunas section (since 2015), dotted = planned/Phase II (Kaunas–Vilnius, Riga node); GPF's 'Rail Baltica' label on Tallinn–Tartu–Valga is corrected to existing 1520 mm rail. Markers at named places; all lines schematic, open-source waypoints flagged in each popup. Logistics context; not folded into A–F milex ratios.
Russia — beyond Ukraine: southern flank and Arctic
George Friedman's thesis (Geopolitical Futures, Russia's Issues Beyond Ukraine, 11 Nov 2025): while Russia fixates on Ukraine, the South Caucasus has become an informal U.S. ally, Washington is courting Central Asia (C5+1) and China hedges on Russian oil. Markers only, at capitals/cities named in the PDF (no borders, buffers or deployments drawn); TRIPP, Kazakhstan and the Caucasus crunch zone are already on other layers. Two PDF claims are flagged against open sources (Vladivostok maps; oil-halt sequence). Thesis, not folded into A–F milex ratios.
Arctic (added v0.14): GPF's Russia's Arctic Buildup (16 Apr 2021) map of 14 Arctic bases and training grounds and the Kola Northern Fleet bases (white-ringed markers). A 2021 snapshot, not a current order of battle; Murmansk and the Northern Sea Route are already on the atlas layer. Baltic/North-West (v0.14.1): Baltiysk, St Petersburg/Kronstadt, Primorsk and the Murmansk railway, from Zolotova (GPF, Jul 2020); the figures are from 2020. Flagged against open sources: Novaya Zemlya radar timing, Belgorod/Khabarovsk status, and changes since 2021 (Northern Fleet command status, carrier out of service).
NATO eastern flank — allied posture
Verified on official and reputable public sources (9 Oct 2026). Forward land forces, HQs, missile defence, Rzeszów hub, air policing and Nordic anchors. Town-level markers; sensitive sites white-ringed in yellow. Ämari, Šiauliai, Mihail Kogălniceanu and Keflavík reuse the NSAIT Map COG nodes. Not folded into A–F milex ratios.
Russia & Belarus — western posture and Axis A links
Military-district and corps HQs at city/town level only. No Oreshnik pin, no range rings, no launcher or storage positions. Dotted lines are correlation links (treaties, arms and technology flows) — schematic. Not folded into A–F milex ratios.
Baltic critical infrastructure
Incident record 2023–24 (cards). Map items moved, same IDs: CI01–03, CI04, CI09 → Gas; CI05, CI08 → Electricity; CI10 shadow-fleet zone → Oil; CI06–07 → Communications. Not folded into A–F milex ratios.
Infrastructure — energy, rail, airports, rivers, communications
Infrastructure toggles are off by default and load on first click. Each item verified on public sources (9 Oct 2026). Lines schematic between named towns; refineries, nuclear plants, military airfields and storage at town level only (yellow ring); no strike or damage overlays. Existing Baltic critical-infrastructure items keep their IDs (CI…). Not folded into A–F milex ratios.
Belarus–EU tracker
User asked about Belarus “moving closer to the EU”. Open sources: relations remain largely frozen under sanctions. Track transactional probes separately.
Correlation matrix (A→B = sum A / sum B)
Limitations
Sources: OWID/SIPRI · Eurostat GDP 2025 · JEF · GPF — Emerging Maritime Architecture in SE Asia (2026-10-09) · GPF — A Long-Term View of Azerbaijan (2026-10-08) · Armenia MFA — TRIPP framework · GPF — The World Explained in Maps, vol. 4 (2025) · GPF — Reviving NATO's Eastern Line (Colibasanu, 2025) · GPF — Russia's Issues Beyond Ukraine (Friedman, 2025-11-11) · GPF — Russia's Arctic Buildup (2021-04-16) · GPF — Russia's Arctic Ambitions (Zolotova, 2020-07-07) · State Dept — C5+1 · data/force-groups.json